Every year, I tell myself that I don’t care about the Academy Awards. But every year, I watch them anyway.

Whether it’s because I love movies or have some sick obligation to keep up with popular culture, I don’t know. But I’m here to share my thoughts about what will and/or should happen Sunday night.

The one annual guarantee from the Oscars is horribly unfunny banter from the host and presenters. The writing is almost universally awful every year, regardless of who is hosting.

 This year, the show is hosted by Ellen DeGeneres — a good choice. She’s one of those people whose presence makes the proceedings more fun than they should be, no matter how bad the writing is. She has natural talent, and hopefully will elevate the material she’s given. I could be an optimist and hope that the writing will be better this year, but I know better.

This might sound strange coming from someone who has reviewed one movie per week since September, but I actually didn’t get a chance to see most of the Best Picture nominees this year. The only one I regret missing is “12 Years a Slave” because it is, by all accounts, a transcendent and important piece of filmmaking. If it is as good as people say it is, it absolutely deserves the award.

People seemed to enjoy “American Hustle,” but I don’t know anyone who thought it was amazing. I have a soft spot for “Nebraska,” but I’m just happy it was nominated. It doesn’t stand a chance.

I know next to nothing about both “Philomena” and “Dallas Buyers Club,” but neither film seems to be getting a great deal of buzz to win the award. Regular readers know I enjoyed both “Gravity” and “Her,” but again, neither is good enough to win the award. Honestly, I don’t know why “Captain Phillips” is nominated, because it’s just a bad movie.

My educated guess is the award will come down to “12 Years a Slave,” “Gravity” or “The Wolf of Wall Street.” I haven’t heard a negative word spoken about “The Wolf of Wall Street” from anyone. It has enough star power and directorial pedigree to be a safe choice.

I think Alfonso Cuarón might deserve Best Director for “Gravity” because of its visuals alone, but it’s not a good enough overall film to win.

That brings me back to “12 Years a Slave.” Even without seeing it, I feel like it definitely should win. If nothing else, it and “Dallas Buyers Club” seem like the only nominees that might have lasting importance, and the latter is not expected to win this award.

 Having said all of that, I think the Academy goes with “The Wolf of Wall Street” because of the people involved. That may not be a good reason, but the Academy gets it wrong almost every year.

I also have some brief thoughts about other awards. I think this is the year Leonardo DiCaprio finally wins an Oscar for Best Actor. If he doesn’t win, it will be Matthew McConaughey.

 Best Actress is a toss-up, and for some reason I feel like Amy Adams might win. I would love to see June Squibb win Best Supporting Actress for her role in “Nebraska,” but I could see it going to Jennifer Lawrence or Julia Roberts instead, whether it’s deserved or not. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Jared Leto win the male counterpart to that award, either.

I could be completely wrong about these predictions, but we won’t find out until Sunday night. The Academy Awards are always at their best when the award recipients are unexpected. Let’s just hope the writing isn’t too terrible.