Thursday night’s game against Memphis may very well be the most important game remaining on Wichita State’s schedule. The matchup against the Tigers will be the last regular season Quadrant-I opportunity for the Shockers ahead of Selection Sunday.

This is a crucial game for both sides, though, as neither team has certified themselves as an NCAA Tournament at-large team. According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the Shockers are one of the last four teams in the tournament and Memphis is among the next four out.

All of the metrics point to a Memphis win, with KenPom giving the Tigers a 52% shot at victory with a score prediction of 67-66. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index is also siding with Memphis, giving them a 55.9% chance of a win.

If the Shockers want to pick up a quality win late in the season, here are three keys to success on Thursday:

Limit Memphis’ pace

One element that makes Memphis difficult to prepare for is their pace of play. Penny Hardaway has brought an NBA-style offense to the Tigers, but the Memphis struggles to take care of the basketball, partly due to that tempo.

The Tigers come into play with the No. 20 adjusted tempo and the No. 17 average possession length, according to KenPom, but turnovers have been a struggle over the recent stretch. Over the past four games, the Tigers have averaged 16.4 turnovers per game, including 24 in an overtime victory against Tulane on Saturday.

“They play up-tempo,” Head Coach Gregg Marshall said during his weekly press conference on Tuesday. “They take long threes and pound it into (Precious) Achiuwa, but they’re young too — even younger than us. That’s hard. I kind of understand a little bit of what Penny (Hardaway)’s going through, especially losing good players, and that’s a part of college basketball.

One way WSU can make the Tigers pay for the turnovers is converting their transition opportunities. If the Shockers focus on scoring in the fast break, then they’ll improve their odds of coming up with the big victory.

In their first matchup on Jan. 9, the Shockers outscored Memphis 10-6 in fast-break points, which helped WSU pull away late for the win.

Precious cargo

Part of what has kept Memphis on the bubble, despite losing highly touted recruits this season — James Wiseman (personal reasons) and DJ Jeffries (injury) — has been the play of freshman standout Precious Achiuwa.

Coming into the contest with WSU, Achuiwa is playing some of his best basketball of the season, coming off a game in which he tallied 22 points and 22 rebounds against the Green Wave. In the first matchup against the Shockers, Achuiwa shined, scoring 22 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in 29 minutes.

Part of what has made Achuiwa so successful in his freshman campaign is his ability to rebound, despite only being 6-9. So far this season, Achuiwa ranks No. 66 in defensive rebounding percentage at a rate of 24.5%. He is also putting up solid numbers on the offensive glass, where his rebounding rate is 11.4% — No. 120 in the nation.

If the Shockers can limit Achuiwa’s effectiveness on the boards, that could be a big factor in pulling off the victory. Another factor for WSU will be Jaime Echenique’s effectiveness against Achuiwa, as Echenique was held to just eight points in the first meeting.

Dexter Dennis’ continued success

In the last 13 minutes of the game against SMU, sophomore combo guard Dexter Dennis was a key catalyst to the 24-point comeback.

Dennis nailed three after three, keeping focused demeanor throughout the comeback. Marshall said he just wants to see the sophomore keep playing with confidence.

“I don’t care if he does cartwheels down the court or has the stone face of all stone faces,” Marshall said. “If he’s playing the way he’s playing and doesn’t embarrass us or himself, I really don’t care. I just want him to play the way he’s playing with confidence. Put the ball on the deck, defend, rebound. I love the way he’s playing. Unless his demeanor gets out of hand, I’m good with it. Stone-faced doesn’t have a point where it gets out of hand.”

In the first matchup with the Tigers, Dennis was mostly a non-factor as he was coming off of his three-game leave of absence. Dennis scored eight points on 1-7 shooting against the Tigers in 26 minutes.

Dennis’s play could determine the outcome for the Shockers. If Dennis can keep up the momentum he started in the second half against SMU, then the Shockers will return to Wichita with a season sweep of Memphis.

Thursday’s will get started at 8 p.m. at the FedExForum. It will be broadcasted on ESPN.